Min Aung Hlaing likely does not fully release Aung San Suu Kyi because she remains one of the strongest political symbols in Myanmar.
There may be several major reasons.
1. Fear of public support
Aung San Suu Kyi still has strong respect and support from many Myanmar people. If she were free, even one public message from her could unite opposition groups and weaken the military’s control.
2. Political bargaining chip
The junta may be keeping her as a tool for negotiation with ASEAN, China, the United Nations, and Western countries. Moving her to house arrest may look like a small concession, but it is not full freedom. Recent reports say her sentence was reduced, but not completely removed.
3. Fear of a legitimacy problem
The military removed her elected government in 2021. If they release her completely, people may ask, “Why was she arrested in the first place? Why was the election result destroyed?” That would damage Min Aung Hlaing’s claim to authority.
4. Control before elections and ASEAN talks
The junta wants international recognition while still keeping control inside the country. Fully releasing Aung San Suu Kyi could create political momentum that the military may not be able to control. ASEAN and the United Nations continue to pressure the junta for political dialogue and the release of political prisoners.
5. Personal and military fear
Aung San Suu Kyi represents civilian rule. Min Aung Hlaing represents military rule. Releasing her fully would bring back the person who reminds Myanmar and the world that the military lost political legitimacy.
6. Political Cowardice
Min Aung Hlaing may not dare to fully release Aung San Suu Kyi because of political fear. He knows that if she is free, public support could rise again and challenge the military’s control. Keeping her in prison or under house arrest may not be a sign of strength. It may be a sign of fear.
In my opinion, he may be using her condition as a political tool, not as justice. House arrest is not real freedom. It is a way to reduce international pressure while keeping her voice controlled.